The head of the International Energy Agency said Thursday “no country is immune” from the implications of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol’s comments came during a wide-ranging interview with The Associated Press, where painted a sobering picture of the global repercussions of what he called “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” stemming from the pinch-off of oil, gas and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
“In the past there was a group called ‘Dire Straits.’ It’s a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy,” he said. “And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world.”
The impact will be higher prices for gas, electricity and gasoline, Birol told the AP, speaking in his Paris office looking out over the Eiffel Tower.
Economic pain will be felt unevenly and it will hit developing countries in Asia, Latin American and Africa much more, according to the Turkish economist and energy expert who has led the IEA since 2015.
But without a settlement of the Iran war that permanently reopens the Strait of Hormuz, “everybody is going to suffer,” he added.
“Some countries may be richer than the others,” he said. “Some countries may have more energy than the others, but no country, no country is immune to this crisis.”
Without a reopening of the waterway, some oil products may dry up, he warned.
Birol spoke out against the so-called “toll booth” system that Iran has applied to some ships, letting them travel through the strait for a fee.
He said allowing that to become more permanent would run the risk of setting a precedent that could then be applied to other waterways, including the vital Malacca Strait in Asia.
“If we change it once, it may be difficult to get it back,” he said. “It will be difficult to have a toll system here, applied here, but not there.”
“I would like to see that the oil flows unconditionally from the point A to point B,” he added.
Birol said more than 110 oil-laden tankers and more than 15 carriers loaded with liquified natural gas are waiting in the Persian Gulf and could help ease the energy crisis if they could escape through the Strait of Hormuz.
“But it is not enough,” he added.
Even with a peace deal, strikes on energy facilities means it could be many months before pre-war production levels are restored, he said.
“It will take gradually, gradually, up to two years to come back where we were before the war,” he concluded.
AP video by Oleg Cetinic and Nicolas Garriga
AP production by Jeffrey Schaeffer
